When Changing Lifestyle You Change a home
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When Changing Lifestyle You Change a home
Listen to Current News Right Now
Dear Readers,
This week’s Market Pulse offers a focused lens on Arizona’s most dynamic real estate corridors, where policy, planning, and premium demand converge. Phoenix leads the metro surge with median home prices climbing 5.6% to $470,000, driven by constrained inventory and a seller-favoring index above 130. Scottsdale’s luxury listings tighten, while Paradise Valley sees its inventory hit a three-year low with $4.1M median list prices and over 60% of transactions now all-cash.
From a wealth management standpoint, these figures highlight a resilient hedge against inflation and underscore increasing portfolio allocation to non-correlated assets. Tax-sensitive investors will note the rise in 1031 exchange efficacy, Opportunity Zone incentives, and cost-segregation plays in fast-growing Pinal County markets. Legislatively, updates to SB1181 and the Job Corridor Priority Act reflect clearer paths for high-value and mixed-use development. Value durability is reinforced by high owner-occupancy in Chandler and Gilbert, where civic green infrastructure is reshaping long-term urban viability. Sustainability gains—ranging from solar mandates in Paradise Valley to broadband rollouts in remote hubs—mark a broader shift toward ESG-aligned, digitally integrated living.
As of June 2025, the Phoenix metro area saw its median sales price rise to $470,000, up 5.6% year-over-year, according to ARMLS. The Cromford Market Index has hovered above 130, suggesting a seller-favoring environment, while available inventory remains suppressed at 2.3 months of supply—well below equilibrium. Homes spent a median of 32 days on market in Maricopa County, down from 38 days last quarter. For wealth managers, these figures underscore Phoenix’s resilience as a long-term value hold amid inflationary hedging strategies. Arizona's new permitting oversight laws, including adjustments to SB1181, continue to reduce friction for high-end builds, reinforcing regulatory clarity. The smart-city investments in broadband, transit, and energy systems position Phoenix as a tech-forward municipality for asset-backed urban portfolios.
Source: ARMLS, Cromford Report
In Scottsdale, homes priced above $1.5M have experienced a 14% reduction in active listings over the past 90 days, while price cuts in this segment have dropped to 9.3%, down from 13.2% in early 2025 (Zillow). Cromford's Contract Ratio in the 85255 ZIP remains above 100, indicating strong demand outpacing supply. For tax-aware investors, Scottsdale’s stable high-value property base supports predictable appreciation and beneficial 1031 exchange scenarios. The city’s updated DRB guidelines streamline entitlements, particularly for green-certified and luxury hillside builds, enhancing regulatory efficiency. Scottsdale's “Smart City” blueprint emphasizes IoT-integrated infrastructure and fire-risk reduction through vegetation mapping—vital for long-term asset preservation.
Source: Zillow Research, City of Scottsdale
According to the U.S. Census Building Permits Survey, Casa Grande and Maricopa City issued a combined 1,478 residential permits in Q1 2025, reflecting a 12.7% year-over-year growth rate. This outpaces Phoenix’s 3.8% permit growth over the same period. Population projections from MAG show Casa Grande expanding by 41% over the next 20 years. These growth indicators align with the region’s emerging-market status, ideal for early-phase real asset deployment. From a tax strategy perspective, accelerated depreciation on new-build rentals in Opportunity Zones across Pinal County enhances investor appeal. State-level reforms (e.g., HB2110) further enable mixed-use developments. Infrastructure plans include broadband expansions and water-resilience upgrades funded under the Arizona Future Bond.
Source: Census Permits, MAG Projections
Chandler is now estimated to be 88% built-out, according to city development data. While new construction slows, the city has repurposed more than 350,000 square feet of former retail into adaptive residential and mixed-use formats, highlighting its redevelopment maturity. For portfolio managers, Chandler’s high owner-occupancy rate (over 68%) signals long-term community retention and pricing stability. The city’s zoning flexibility and adaptive reuse incentives dovetail with ESG mandates and tax credit programs, such as federal LIHTC overlays for senior and affordable units. Chandler also maintains one of the highest broadband penetration rates in Arizona, bolstering smart-workforce viability.
Source: City of Chandler Blog
Cave Creek and Carefree recorded a median sales price of $1.12M in May 2025, with inventory dropping 18% since February. Both towns maintain fewer than 1.8 months of supply, reflecting strong demand for semi-rural acreage and view lots. For estate planners, large-lot zoning and lifestyle orientation offer low-density buffers for privacy-driven clients. Municipal permit data reveals sustained demand for horse-property upgrades and ADU construction, aligned with SB2119 easing restrictions. Sustainability-conscious buyers benefit from water conservation overlays and septic-to-sewer conversions incentivized by county credits.
Paradise Valley's median list price reached $4.1M in June 2025, with only 2.2 months of inventory on the market — the lowest in three years per Redfin MLS feeds. Homes in the $5M+ tier are selling in under 58 days on average, a 22% improvement year-over-year. The concentration of UHNW buyers has increased the share of cash deals to 61%, reflecting heightened portfolio diversification into non-correlated, physical assets. Legislative clarity on accessory dwellings and hillside construction (per Paradise Valley’s Planning Commission adjustments) provides regulatory predictability for custom homebuilders. Sustainability mandates for new construction, including solar prewiring and xeriscaping, enhance long-term appeal for ESG-aligned capital.
Source: Redfin Data Center, Town of Paradise Valley
As of May 2025, Tucson’s multifamily vacancy rate has decreased to 4.6%, while effective rents have risen by 7.3% year-over-year, according to CoStar. Nearly 2,800 new units are under construction, with leasing velocity highest near the University of Arizona and the Kino Parkway corridor. For investors, Tucson’s economic diversity and stable employment in healthcare, education, and aerospace industries create long-range rent resilience. Tax-aligned incentives, such as Pima County’s abatement on qualified workforce housing projects, increase after-tax returns. Sustainability features, including water-recapture systems and green roofs on new builds, are promoted under the city’s Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, reinforcing Tucson’s eco-focused urban branding.
Source: CoStar Group, City of Tucson Climate Plan
Mesa’s job growth rate stands at 5.4% annually as of Q2 2025, according to the Arizona Commerce Authority, driven by semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and logistics. Residential development around the Valley Metro Light Rail extension has increased housing permit activity by 9.1% in TOD overlay zones. Wealth management professionals may view this alignment of employment and housing infrastructure as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility. Mesa's zoning amendments, which fast-track mid-density residential near transit nodes, also qualify for federal TOD infrastructure financing. Utility-scale broadband and solar resiliency initiatives further Mesa’s profile as a future-ready investment location.
Source: Arizona Commerce Authority, City of Mesa Planning & Development
Gilbert now holds one of the Valley’s highest owner-occupancy rates at 72.3%, per 2023 ACS estimates, while housing turnover has slowed to under 4% annually. With over 90% of its land area built out, the town is transitioning toward vertical infill and luxury remodels. These dynamics suggest strong value stability for long-term holders and estate transfer planning. From a tax and governance perspective, Gilbert’s recent adoption of green infrastructure requirements for all civic developments signals long-term municipal planning discipline. Water usage per capita has declined 8% over five years, aligning with state conservation mandates and safeguarding future carrying capacity.
Source: U.S. Census ACS, Town of Gilbert
As of June 2025, Sedona’s active residential inventory has dropped 16.8% year-over-year, with the median list price reaching $1.14M according to Redfin. Properties in Oak Creek Canyon and West Sedona are consistently transacting above $700/sf. The city’s cap on short-term rental licenses has indirectly bolstered owner-occupancy and further limited supply. For UHNW and family office buyers, Sedona’s restrictive zoning and environmental overlays reinforce scarcity and long-term asset defensibility. From a sustainability angle, the city’s green building code, adopted in 2023, mandates efficient water systems and low-emission materials for all new builds—enhancing its appeal among climate-conscious investors.
Source: Redfin, City of Sedona
Prescott’s median home value has increased 6.9% annually as of Q2 2025, per Zillow, with strong activity in the $600K–$900K bracket. Homeownership remains above 70%, and the average home age exceeds 28 years—highlighting a mature but stable market. For estate planners, Prescott’s senior-skewed demographic and consistent appreciation profile offer conservatively appreciating assets for intergenerational trusts. Legislative focus includes streamlined approval of accessory cottages under SB2110, popular for caretaker and aging-in-place models. The town continues to invest in fire-resilient infrastructure and has adopted a managed-growth plan limiting exurban sprawl, enhancing long-term valuation integrity.
Source: Zillow Research, City of Prescott
Queen Creek currently leads Maricopa County in entitled residential lots in planning stages, with over 9,800 new homes across master-planned communities such as Barney Farms, Terravella, and QC Commons. Surprise is close behind, with over 7,400 approved units across Sterling Grove, Rancho Mercado, and Prasada. These developments integrate smart-grid readiness, recycled water systems, and broadband-enabled home tech platforms. Private equity firms and build-for-rent operators are increasingly targeting these submarkets for scale deployment. Arizona’s Assured Water Supply program updates (June 2025) include new modeling for Surprise, preserving project viability. Both towns have adopted overlay districts to incentivize mixed-use nodes and EV infrastructure, ensuring long-run compliance with both ESG screens and zoning predictability.
Source: Maricopa County Permitting
Communities like Trilogy at Verde River, Troon North, and Desert Mountain continue to command median price-per-square-foot rates above $650, supported by exclusivity, lifestyle amenities, and protected viewsheds. Days on market in this corridor average just 29 for turnkey listings. Many transactions are cash or trust-structured, reinforcing the area's reputation as a legacy asset zone. Regulatory attention includes County-level wildfire defensible space requirements, now enforced as of April 2025. Smart irrigation systems and advanced water metering have become standard in new luxury builds, contributing to value preservation and smart-home energy scores often used in insurance underwriting.
Source: Redfin, Maricopa County
Florence and Apache Junction are among the few submarkets in Pinal County with more than 35% of their housing built post-2010, according to Census housing stock data. Combined with low property tax rates and per capita water allocations above state averages, these towns present advantageous ground for long-horizon development. For family offices and private builders, land prices remain below $5/sf in multiple entitled parcels.Infrastructure expansions including the North-South Corridor and SR24 extension are backed by multi-jurisdictional capital improvement plans, which will significantly shorten commute times to East Valley employment centers.
Source: U.S. Census Housing Stock, Arizona Department of Transportation
Show Low and Payson have experienced a 28% increase in out-of-county buyer activity year-over-year, per PropertyRadar, with the majority of new owners coming from Maricopa and Pima counties. Median days on market in both towns has dropped below 30 for properties under $500,000, indicating surging interest in second homes and work-from-forest lifestyle assets. Legislative considerations include streamlined septic upgrades and ADU allowances under HB2447, benefiting multi-generational and work-from-home property configurations. Broadband expansions under the Arizona Broadband Development Grant enhance the digital viability of remote work enclaves.
Goodyear and Buckeye collectively attracted over $1.3B in industrial and logistics investments through Q2 2025, per Arizona Commerce Authority reports. New distribution hubs and tech parks along I-10 are generating projected job growth rates exceeding 8% annually. These municipalities now account for more than 21% of the West Valley’s total new housing starts. From a tax policy angle, municipal incentives like infrastructure reimbursements and expedited review under the "Job Corridor Priority Act" amplify ROI for developers. Goodyear's climate resiliency planning and grid modernization underscore its inclusion in regional sustainability grant funding.
Arizona continues to cement its leadership in digital governance, with cities like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe spearheading scalable smart-city frameworks
Scottsdale is executing a sophisticated shift from regional luxury enclave to globally recognized smart city brand—quietly positioning itself among cities
Thank you for spending time with this week’s Arizona Market Pulse. From the red rocks of Sedona to the economic corridors of Goodyear, the data points to a landscape shaped not just by scarcity and demand, but by intelligent regulation, demographic migration, and long-horizon planning.
If you found these insights valuable, feel free to share this briefing with your trusted circle or follow us for continuing updates on strategic market positioning. For those seeking a more tailored outlook, I invite you to schedule a private Zoom session to explore bespoke asset strategies aligned with your goals.
Click here to explore current mortgage rates. Rates may vary based on credit score, loan type, and lender policies. For the most accurate estimate, consult with a lender.
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Nice to meet you! I’m Katrina Golikova, and I believe you landed here for a reason. I help my clients to reach their real estate goals through thriving creative solutions and love to share my knowledge—giving lots of freebies along the way.
See You Soon,
Katrina
You can listen right now to current news
You can listen to all AZique real estate news and insights on Spotify or any other preferred platform of yours: YouTube, Amazon, Audible, Apple Podcast. Daily Arizona real estate market pulse – straight from Sonoran Desert to you where ever you are!
Always fresh, smart, data-driven from Sonoran Desert straight to your mailbox
Click here to explore current mortgage rates. Rates may vary based on credit score, loan type, and lender policies. For the most accurate estimate, consult with a lender.
Realty One Group
Katrina Golikova
Real Estate Professional
License ID: SA696603000
17550 N Perimeter Dr, Scottsdale, AZ 85255
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