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Welcome to this week’s Market Pulse ! As we crest the midsummer peak, Arizona’s housing market continues to show remarkable momentum across sectors—from scorching luxury sales in Scottsdale to robust industrial growth in Buckeye. Phoenix boasts over 7,100 under-contract homes, while Paradise Valley celebrates 17 closings over $5M. Queen Creek and Maricopa City lead in residential permits, ensuring a solid foundation for long-term investment.
This week’s developments have strong implications for wealth managers tracking short-term and trust-backed property moves. Tax strategists will want to note the shifting affordability index and the capital gain windows in key metros. Legislative updates on ADUs and zoning push statewide livability and build-out optimization. Meanwhile, value-stability markers such as DOM compression and infrastructure overlays reinforce future-proof positions. From a smart-city lens, we see sustainability taking root—from water planning in Casa Grande to EV-charging mandates in Queen Creek. Let’s dive in!
As of mid-July 2025, ARMLS reported that Phoenix had 7,141 listings under contract, a 10.2% increase month-over-month, while active listings dropped 4.7% from June. Median days on market shortened to 41 days, compared to 48 in June, reflecting rising buyer urgency. Cromford Report's Contract Ratio Index climbed to 88.9 in Phoenix proper, indicating a hotter-than-average market, particularly for homes priced below $600,000.
This dynamic supports short-term investment visibility, encourages efficient tax realization on capital gains, and may signal regulatory tightening in water supply issuance for new subdivisions. Phoenix’s fast DOM reduction and steady demand remain in alignment with smart growth infrastructure plans targeting West Valley transit expansion.
Scottsdale's median sale price stood at $899,500 in July, with a DOM of just 34 days—20 days faster than in March 2025. Paradise Valley led Arizona in median sale price, now at $3.75M, and recorded 17 closings over $5M in Q2, per Redfin and local MLS feeds.
Cromford's Market Action Index remains over 120 in both cities, designating strong seller markets. These cities benefit from consistent buyer inflow from high-net-worth out-of-state households, incentivized by Arizona’s favorable property tax regime and the lack of estate tax. Future-proof value stability is further enhanced by strict zoning controls and limited new inventory, aligning with long-range sustainability and water-assurance compliance mandates.
According to the U.S. Census Building Permits Survey and MAG projections, Queen Creek issued 1,118 residential permits YTD through June 2025, while Maricopa City surpassed 980. These figures place both cities in Arizona’s top five for new residential starts.
Both municipalities report over 10 years of growth capacity based on current land entitlements, supported by active infrastructure bonds for arterial road expansion and school siting. From a capital markets view, this pace supports scalable community development trusts. Tax credits for infrastructure overlay districts further reduce developer risk. These areas are actively aligning with smart-city frameworks including EV readiness and broadband inclusion, attracting family-centric migration patterns.
Casa Grande continues to benefit from TSMC’s supplier cluster expansion and electric vehicle supply chain investments, while Buckeye saw a 19.5% increase in industrial permits YOY. CoStar data shows industrial vacancy in Greater Phoenix West at 4.2%, down from 6.7% one year ago.
These cities offer strategic tax-advantaged industrial corridors under Arizona Commerce Authority incentive overlays. From a macro-financial perspective, long-duration infrastructure investments here—especially in logistics parks—provide balance sheet insulation against cyclical retail risk. Casa Grande’s long-range water planning approval enhances sustainability credibility for institutional investors.
Chandler’s built-out rate is now estimated at 88%, and Tempe’s at 91%, per city planning dashboards. In 2025, Tempe launched a redevelopment program incentivizing repurposing of underutilized retail centers, while Chandler approved 310 multifamily infill units since Q1.
This transition aligns with legislative pushes (SB1181, HB2119) to ease ADU and duplex approvals. From a tax and compliance lens, infill strategies reduce impact fee burdens and boost assessed value density. These cities are also advancing green retrofits via heat mitigation grants and integrating zoning overlays that support transit-oriented development.
Glendale’s sports-entertainment district saw an 11% YOY lift in adjacent residential value according to Zillow’s geotagged ZHVI data. Peoria, meanwhile, has over $280M in civic improvements planned through 2027, including water reclamation and public safety facilities.
These developments are backed by stable fiscal regimes and leverage municipal bonds rated AA or higher. For wealth planning, the increase in asset-backed public improvements enhances property value resilience and offsets exposure to rising insurance premiums. Both cities are scaling sustainability integration via parks expansion and smart traffic systems.
Fountain Hills recorded only 18 active luxury listings (>$2M) as of July, a 28% drop from February. Sedona’s DOM for properties above $1.5M is down to 52 days, driven by equity-backed purchases.
Prescott remains competitive at a $789K median for high-end properties, with inventory down 13% YOY. These markets are shielded from volatility due to discretionary wealth inflows and land scarcity, with Fountain Hills nearing 94% built-out status. Passive income tax planning, 1031 exchanges, and trust-based holdings are increasingly used here, where zoning constraints limit supply elasticity. Environmental overlays (wildfire risk zones) also factor heavily into underwriting.
Tucson’s median home price in July was $358,000, up 4.1% YOY but still 21% below Phoenix, per Redfin. The city’s active inventory grew 9.8% over the past quarter, offering improved price accessibility.
Tucson leads Arizona in civic engagement metrics, including the highest voter turnout among major cities (63% in latest local elections) and robust public input on its 2050 General Plan. Infrastructure investment through the “Prop 411” program ($590M over 10 years) positions Tucson for value-stable growth. Taxpayers benefit from offsetting property tax increases through targeted exemptions and localized bond controls.
Yardi Matrix tracking shows over 3,200 build-to-rent (BTR) units under construction across Gilbert, Mesa, and Queen Creek. Average monthly rents for detached BTR units in these zones are $2,065, slightly above metro-wide multifamily averages, but with lower tenant churn.
The model continues to attract pension funds and REITs seeking stable cash flows amid yield compression. Tax advantages via Opportunity Zones and depreciation schedules remain key underwriting factors. Gilbert’s infrastructure readiness and zoning flexibility make it especially resilient to macro rate shocks. Cities are increasingly evaluating utility capacity impacts and incorporating EV-charging minimums in approvals.
The National Association of Realtors’ Affordability Index for Arizona rose to 98.4 in June 2025, up from 94.1 in March. Zillow data confirms the statewide price growth has decelerated to 3.1% YOY, offering relief from the 9.7% pace observed in 2023.
Median income buyers in metro Phoenix can now afford ~86% of the median-priced home with a 20% down payment at current 6.57% mortgage rates. This trend favors long-term homeowner occupancy models over investor resale flips. State legislators are monitoring affordability closely, particularly in coordination with new ADU guidelines under HB2110. Affordability upticks also support ESG scoring for institutional asset managers.
Despite a 15% YOY increase in single-family and multifamily permits in Buckeye and Goodyear, BLS reports show local construction employment remains flat, with trade labor shortages cited as a top delay factor. Median permit-to-completion timelines have extended to 8.9 months, up from 6.7 in early 2024.
Developers are responding with off-site modular strategies and incentive packages. From a fiscal angle, extended build timelines increase carrying costs and taxable assessments mid-phase. These constraints could limit new supply despite high zoned land availability, reinforcing price stability. Smart-city frameworks under review include expedited e-inspection pilots and prefabricated material codes.
As of July 2025, SB1181 (streamlining multifamily ADU conversions) and HB2119 (default ADU approval on single-family lots) have passed into law. These laws pre-empt local restrictions and apply statewide, directly impacting cities such as Chandler, Scottsdale, and Tempe with historic overlay zones.
This move is expected to increase small-unit inventory and promote intergenerational living models. Tax assessors are preparing new valuation templates for ADU inclusion, while HOAs must now provide explicit exemption clauses. For investors and estate planners, the policy opens up yield enhancement through increased unit count per parcel, though water usage compliance remains a constraint.
Across Arizona, cities are fast-tracking cutting-edge infrastructure—from AI-powered windows at Phoenix Sky Harbor to digital equity hubs in underserved Phoenix
As cities worldwide rapidly evolve with cutting-edge digital governance and people-centric technology, the opportunities for future-proof investing and sustainable urban
Thank you for joining me in this edition of Market Pulse – Arizona’s property landscape is proving resilient and dynamic, from ADU-friendly legislation to robust luxury and industrial activity. Whether you’re an investor, wealth planner, or smart-city enthusiast, the state’s strategic pivots offer insights into how the future of real estate is unfolding now.
I encourage you to share this newsletter with your colleagues and network. Don’t forget to follow me on social media for weekly insights. To dive deeper into how these shifts impact your portfolio or strategy, book a complimentary Zoom session today. Let’s navigate the market together—smartly and confidently.
Click here to explore current mortgage rates. Rates may vary based on credit score, loan type, and lender policies. For the most accurate estimate, consult with a lender.
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You can listen to all AZique real estate news and insights on Spotify or any other preferred platform of yours: YouTube, Amazon, Audible, Apple Podcast. Daily Arizona real estate market pulse – straight from Sonoran Desert to you where ever you are!
Always fresh, smart, data-driven from Sonoran Desert straight to your mailbox
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Nice to meet you! I’m Katrina Golikova, and I believe you landed here for a reason. I help my clients to reach their real estate goals through thriving creative solutions and love to share my knowledge—giving lots of freebies along the way.
See You Soon,
Katrina
You can listen right now to current news
You can listen to all AZique real estate news and insights on Spotify or any other preferred platform of yours: YouTube, Amazon, Audible, Apple Podcast. Daily Arizona real estate market pulse – straight from Sonoran Desert to you where ever you are!
Always fresh, smart, data-driven from Sonoran Desert straight to your mailbox
Click here to explore current mortgage rates. Rates may vary based on credit score, loan type, and lender policies. For the most accurate estimate, consult with a lender.
Realty One Group
Katrina Golikova
Real Estate Professional
License ID: SA696603000
17550 N Perimeter Dr, Scottsdale, AZ 85255
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