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Hello and welcome to this week’s Arizona Real Estate Brief — your essential weekly roundup of the most pivotal trends shaping the Valley’s property market! The first half of 2025 has already been eventful: luxury home listings in Phoenix soared by a combined 32%, while key zoning and legislative changes are reshaping Scottsdale, Phoenix, and surrounding areas. Investors and property owners should stay alert as new state laws promote density and override local design control, directly influencing both tax exposure and smart-city potential. From water-rights reform unlocking new developments in Buckeye to worker-led zoning disputes challenging traditional land-use models, the dynamics are as complex as they are full of opportunity. With future-proofing at the forefront, ESG, transit-oriented growth, and zoning clarity are becoming the defining pillars of long-term value. Let’s dive in!
The luxury market in Phoenix saw a 17% year‑over‑year increase in luxury home listings in Q1 2025, followed by another 15% gain in Q2. For wealth managers, this expansion signals differentiated asset allocation opportunities in high‑end segments, albeit with longer average holding periods. The stable zoning regime and absence of rate hikes have muted tax volatility, while ongoing city parcel rezoning efforts are expanding building opportunity zones. From a sustainability lens, new luxury projects increasingly request green‑certification incentives, bolstering long‑run appeal in upscale resale markets. With this elevated listings baseline, pricing resilience remains intact, supporting future capital preservation.
Two new Arizona state laws—HB 2720 (permitting up to three backyard casitas on single‑family parcels) and HB 2297 (“adaptive reuse” of commercial properties to multifamily apartments)—have been enacted, significantly limiting Scottsdale’s local zoning control. From a wealth‑management perspective, these changes may unlock previously inaccessible development corridors, diversifying future cash‑flow assets. However, owners in affected neighborhoods must consider potential changes in property assessments and municipal tax bases. These laws reflect legislative shifts curtailing municipal discretion—a trend that may affect regulatory risk models. Adaptive‑reuse opportunities aligned with smart zoning blur traditional use‑class boundaries and support mixed‑use regeneration, aligning with sustainability and walkable‑community objectives. For long‑term value, these changes increase density potential but may heighten competition.
Axon’s proposed 74‑acre corporate campus near Hayden Road and Loop 101, including 1,900 residential units, hotel, and retail, was approved by Scottsdale City Council in November 2024—but has been mired in referendum and legislative conflict. The state legislature and Governor Katie Hobbs enacted SB 1543, eliminating citizen referendum rights for zoning in cities of 200,000–500,000 population and validating Axon’s rezoning plan retroactively. From a wealth‑management lens, this legal precedent reduces project execution risk for anchor business initiatives tied to HQ development. Tax revenue stability may improve under consolidated, mixed‑use campuses. Regulatory shifts favoring international headquarters-led development are growing. ESG and smart‑campus design proposals reportedly include solar, green landscaping, and public‑access park space. Over time, such corporate‑anchored zoning expansions can underpin localized property‑value growth and municipal fiscal health.
Worker Power, aligned with Unite Here Local 11, representing over 32,000 hospitality and transport workers, has become a significant voice in land‑use disputes across Scottsdale, Tempe, and Glendale, including opposition efforts around Axon’s development. For high‑wealth investors, understanding such advocacy influence is vital in political‑risk assessments for major developments. Supported minimum‑wage initiatives may indirectly affect operating expense models in mixed‑use or hospitality investments. From a legislative standpoint, the group is activating referenda and public pressure campaigns that shape zoning outcomes. Its focus on transparency and environmental issues ties into ESG‑aligned investing priorities. Anticipating future campaigns of this type assists in future‑proofing investment timing and stakeholder management.
As of June 2025, multiple sources report that median home values in Phoenix are now declining year-over‑year, ranging from a slight 0.3% rise (to about $456,500) per Redfin to a 1.3% increase (to $460,087) per Rocket.com—but Cromford Report and related analytics suggest a modest 2.9–4% year-over‑year decline when adjusted for pricing dynamics and luxury segment shifts. Active listings remain elevated in the 7,700–26,000 range depending on definitions, reflecting continued buyer leverage and slower mid‑tier demand. From a wealth‑management lens, this evolving environment shifts focus to timing and liquidity rather than outright appreciation. Property tax exposure remains moderate, though shifting assessments could adjust liabilities. Legislative momentum favors affordability—but may penalize specific developer models. Value stability now hinges on quality, location, and ESG‑aligned smart infrastructure. Municipal demand for EV charging and energy efficiency retrofit metrics increasingly inform resale value.
Arizona’s 2025 Legislature has passed or is considering a series of bills—from SB 1229, HB 2371 (Arizona Starter Homes Act) to HB 2447/HB 2110—that curtail municipal design control, streamline permitting, and mandate middle‑housing allowances within one mile of central business districts (e.g., duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhomes). The City of Phoenix must adopt overlay zoning amendments by November 5, 2025, effective January 1, 2026, aligning local codes with state mandates. Investors and portfolio managers now weigh regulatory arbitrage opportunities in evolving middle‑housing zones but must also assess increased competition and potential tax reclassification. The legislative trend reduces local zoning oversight, elevating statewide uniformity. From a future‑proof perspective, mid‑scale infill housing may deliver longer‑term resilient demand. Smart‑city frameworks may benefit from denser development, enabling transit‑oriented growth and sustainability.
As of June 2025, multiple sources report that median home values in Phoenix are now declining year-over‑year, ranging from a slight 0.3% rise (to about $456,500) per Redfin to a 1.3% increase (to $460,087) per Rocket.com—but Cromford Report and related analytics suggest a modest 2.9–4% year-over‑year decline when adjusted for pricing dynamics and luxury segment shifts. Active listings remain elevated in the 7,700–26,000 range depending on definitions, reflecting continued buyer leverage and slower mid‑tier demand. From a wealth‑management lens, this evolving environment shifts focus to timing and liquidity rather than outright appreciation. Property tax exposure remains moderate, though shifting assessments could adjust liabilities. Legislative momentum favors affordability—but may penalize specific developer models. Value stability now hinges on quality, location, and ESG‑aligned smart infrastructure. Municipal demand for EV charging and energy efficiency retrofit metrics increasingly inform resale value.
Arizona’s 2025 Legislature has passed or is considering a series of bills—from SB 1229, HB 2371 (Arizona Starter Homes Act) to HB 2447/HB 2110—that curtail municipal design control, streamline permitting, and mandate middle‑housing allowances within one mile of central business districts (e.g., duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhomes). The City of Phoenix must adopt overlay zoning amendments by November 5, 2025, effective January 1, 2026, aligning local codes with state mandates. Investors and portfolio managers now weigh regulatory arbitrage opportunities in evolving middle‑housing zones but must also assess increased competition and potential tax reclassification. The legislative trend reduces local zoning oversight, elevating statewide uniformity. From a future‑proof perspective, mid‑scale infill housing may deliver longer‑term resilient demand. Smart‑city frameworks may benefit from denser development, enabling transit‑oriented growth and sustainability.
In June 2025, Maricopa County initiated the first sweeping update to its Maricopa County Zoning Ordinance (MCZO) in decades, aimed at enhancing clarity, usability, visuals, and alignment with housing flexibility reforms. Stakeholder sessions launched June 5, with a second meeting planned for August 28, 2025. For owners and investors in unincorporated areas or outlying suburbs, these updates could impact permitted density, development thresholds, and review processes. Tax implications may follow if increased build‑out transforms community infrastructure cost models. The decision‑making shift leans toward modern planning efficiencies and public‑industry alignment. In future‑proofing terms, the updated MCZO will support smart growth corridors and climate‑adaptive subdivisions. Infrastructure investment and regulatory clarity are expected to support long‑term property‑value retention.
Governor Hobbs signed legislation in mid‑2025 allowing the sale of agricultural water rights to housing developers in rapidly growing areas such as Buckeye and Queen Creek, bypassing previous groundwater moratoria and unlocking new subdivision expansion. From a wealth‑management standpoint, this opens capital‑intensive, land‑adjacent development opportunities—but introduces water‑security risk in long‑term holding models. The regulatory shift reflects intentional policy to facilitate suburban expansion, though critics deem it insufficient for drought mitigation. Smart‑city advocates are watching how new clusters incorporate water‑efficient design, reclaimed water systems, or LEED‑style site certification. Over time, these water‑driven legislative changes may influence property‑value stability in high‑growth corridors.
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That wraps up this week’s insight-packed Arizona Real Estate Brief – Whether you’re advising high-net-worth clients, developing midscale infill, or analyzing regulatory impact zones — there’s no shortage of opportunity and nuance in this fast-evolving market. Be sure to share this newsletter with your colleagues and clients who value high-impact, future-ready real estate intelligence. Follow me on social media for real-time insights, and if you’d like to explore how these changes affect your portfolio, don’t hesitate to book a private strategy Zoom session. Until next week — stay informed, stay agile!
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You can listen to all AZique real estate news and insights on Spotify or any other preferred platform of yours: YouTube, Amazon, Audible, Apple Podcast. Daily Arizona real estate market pulse – straight from Sonoran Desert to you where ever you are!
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Nice to meet you! I’m Katrina Golikova, and I believe you landed here for a reason. I help my clients to reach their real estate goals through thriving creative solutions and love to share my knowledge—giving lots of freebies along the way.
See You Soon,
Katrina
You can listen right now to current news
You can listen to all AZique real estate news and insights on Spotify or any other preferred platform of yours: YouTube, Amazon, Audible, Apple Podcast. Daily Arizona real estate market pulse – straight from Sonoran Desert to you where ever you are!
Always fresh, smart, data-driven from Sonoran Desert straight to your mailbox
Click here to explore current mortgage rates. Rates may vary based on credit score, loan type, and lender policies. For the most accurate estimate, consult with a lender.
Realty One Group
Katrina Golikova
Real Estate Professional
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17550 N Perimeter Dr, Scottsdale, AZ 85255
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